IQ icon

Chelsea remains favourite after transfers

As the transfer window closed last night in almost all European competitions, Remiqz presents the performance impact and adjusted odds for the 2017/2018 season. Using our Euro Player Index (EPI) of all players and a proprietary simulation engine, we can calculate the change of odds for the title, European football and relegation.
Lukaku_Morata_DeBoer_Oxlade_2

Published on 01 September 2017

Top Headlines

  • In contrary to popular belief, Chelsea remains favourite for the title.
  • Of the top six teams, Liverpool strengthened their squad most.
  • Everton improves its position as best-of-the-rest.
  • Crystal Palace is the only team that decreased in sporting quality.
  • Promoted clubs most likely candidates for relegation.
  • Premier League further increases in sporting quality.

 

League title

Reigning champions Chelsea struggled on the transfer market this summer. However, Conte managed to add the likes of Morata (Real Madrid), Bakayoko (AS Monaco) and Rüdiger (AS Roma) to his squad early on, with Drinkwater (Leicester City) and Zappacosta (Torino) joining on deadline day. All in all, Chelsea’s chance of retaining their Premier League title is approximately 37% given their current squad strength.

The other title candidates also improved their squads, although it is clear that Liverpool, Manchester United and Manchester City have done a much better job than Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur. If Liverpool manages to hold onto Coutinho, who is still a target of FC Barcelona, their chances of winning their long awaited first Premier League title will have doubled to approximately 11%. Manchester City (20%) and Manchester United (15%) however both have more quality and depth in their squads. Both Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur have had a disappointing transfer window, leaving them each with only 8% chance of glory.

 

Best of the rest

Everton have put the revenue from selling star striker Lukaku to Manchester United to good use. With the signing of Klaassen (Ajax) early on, Koeman has ensured himself of the services of the best player of the Dutch Eredivisie for a relatively small price. Adding the return of Rooney (Manchester United) and proven players such as Sigurdsson (Swansea), Keane (Burnley) and Pickford (Sunderland), makes Everton the most likely best of the rest.

 

The fight against relegation

At the bottom of the table, the relegation candidates stayed the same after all transfers. Although Brighton & Hove Albion and Huddersfield Town both improved their squad quality significantly, the odds are still not in their favour. Both teams have less than 50% chance of playing in the Premier League next season. Newcastle United is the natural third candidate for relegation. Their odds of relegation to the Championship increased to approximately 43%. Other candidates include Burnley (29%), Watford (22%), Bournemouth (22%)  and Crystal Palace (24%), with the squad of De Boer being the only one in the Premier League to deteriorate in sporting quality.

 

England increases its status as top league in Europe

Comparing the Premier League with the other major competitions in Europe, the gap in quality increased during the transfer window. All top five competitions (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and England) showed an improvement in the standard of their squads, but the Premier League stood out. The average team quality rose significantly. Italy closed the gap a little, but the other three competitions all showed only a relatively small improvement. Although the average squad quality of the entire Premier League is greater, the top teams of the other leagues have better squads than their Premier League rivals, with Real Madrid being the strongest team once again.