IQ icon

France vs. The Netherlands: a scientific analysis

For the Dutch national team, tonight can be the final blow that will keep them from a ticket to the World Championship next year in Russia. To give all fans an objective insight in this game, we put our data scientists at work. They came with surprising conclusions and new topics for discussion about the French and Dutch national teams.  

Published on 30 August 2017

Odds for the game between France and The Netherlands on the 31th of August.

Based on the selection announced by Didier Deschamps and Dick Advocaat, previous used formations and preferred positions of all players the following line-up is used to calculated the odds.

FRANCE

Name Position EPI
Antoine Griezmann F 5.030
Paul Pogba M 4.834
N’Golo Kanté M 4.794
Samuel Umtiti D 4.708
Raphaël Varane D 4.626
Hugo Lloris G 4.553
Alexandre Lacazette F 4.393
Blaise Matuidi M 4.344
Olivier Giroud F 4.236
Layvin Kurzawa D 3.081
Christophe Jallet D 3.870


*based on this potential line-up the team strength is: 4377

 

THE NETHERLANDS

Name Position EPI
Arjen Robben F 4.522
Georginio Wijnaldum M 4.460
Daley Blind D 3.917
Quincy Promes M 3.657
Kevin Strootman M 3.633
Bas Dost F 3.526
Jasper Cillessen G 3.222
Bruno Martins Indi D 3.196
Stefan de Vrij D 3.185
Joël Veltman D 3.081
Wesley Sneijder M 2.930

*based on this potential line-up the team strength is: 3599

 

This together gives the odds of:

*Any adjustments to the line-up will have a slight influence on the odds

 

New generation of France and The Netherlands

This relative low chance for the Dutch squad to win over the French is quite different than recent years, when The Netherlands reached the semi-finals in consecutive World Championships. A glimpse on the next generation players of both countries indicated a potential gap in quality. In fact, the top-16 players of France have a higher current EPI than the best player of The Netherlands. Furthermore, the talents of France all play at European’s top clubs. This boost their potential for the years to come, and makes the above presented odds for tonight a standard for next matches between these two football nations.

FRANCE

Name Current Club Position EPI Age
Theo Hernandez Real Madrid D 4.073 19,9
Ousmane Dembélé Borussia Dortmund F 3.997 20,3
Thomas Lemar AS Monaco M 3.933 21,8
Anthony Martial Manchester United F 3.780 21,7
Lucas Hernández Atlético Madrid D 3.757 21,5

 

THE NETHERLANDS

Name Current Club Position EPI Age
Riechedly Bazoer VfL Wolfsburg M 2.591 20,9
Justin Hoogma 1899 Hoffenheim D 2.590 19,2
Bart Ramselaar PSV M 2.517 21,1
Rick van Drongelen Hamburger SV D 2.445 18,7
Jairo Riedewald Crystal Palace D 2.419 20,9

 

*Top-25 players below the age of 22, based on their current EPI

 

Average EPI Top-11 Top-18 Top-25
France 3.467 3.153 2.967
The Netherlands 2.368 2.231 2.114