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England have massive 31.7% chance of winning the World Cup

5 July 2018
There are only 8 teams left of the 32 countries that started the World Cup three weeks ago. In this blog, Remiqz presents a statistical prediction of the further outcome of the biggest tournament in football.

England big favourites to bring it home

According to our simulation model, England now have a 64.2% chance of reaching the final in Moscow, the most likely opponent being Brazil, who have a 37.5% of being present. According to our simulations there is a 31.7% chance of The Three Lions bringing it home. This gives England the biggest chance of all teams left in Russia to win the World Cup.

This edition of the World Cup truly is a draw of two halves. Besides England, our model gives the biggest chances of winning to the aforementioned Brazil (24.1%), hugely talented France (22.4%) and outsiders Belgium (9.9%), who are all not in the same side of the bracket as England.

Gareth Southgate’s team has made a good decision by losing to Belgium in the last group game. Their match against the hard-working Swedes in the quarter-finals, who have a very slim 0.2% chance of winning the final, should not be a problem and after that it is better to play against Croatia (8.5% chance of winning) or host country Russia (0.9%) than against one of the top sides from the other half of the draw.

Remiqz is doing well in prediction competition for World Cup 2018

Every World Cup, Futbolmetrix organises the Sophisticated Prediction Contest. There is a lot of statistical analysis done in predicting the World Cup. At the Futbolmetrix blog, 24 models are being compared by holding their predictions up against the actual results. In its first-ever participation, Remiqz won the group stage of the prediction contest! The blog is fun reading material if you like football predictions based on statistics, and can be found here.

Remiqz’ goal is to help the decision-making process within football clubs by offering objective input on the added value of their players. Working with Remiqz allows clubs to maximize their sporting quality within the boundaries of their financial possibilities. We help clubs by collectively setting realistic goals for the first team, mapping the criteria the squad needs to satisfy in terms of both quantity and quality of the players, identifying the strengths and weaknesses of the current squad and defining the white spots.