The Ranked Probability Score is “a statistical method to evaluate the quality of predictions with outcomes that have an order to them. This makes it a good tool to measure the quality of football predictions, as football matches have ranked outcomes (home win > draw > away win). The RPS compares how far off predictions were to what actually happened. This means that a low RPS is a good RPS, as it more or less represents the ‘error’ in the predictions”.
To read more about the research and the model, please visit https://cognitivefootball.wordpress.com/rps-17-18/
The development of the ECI already started in 2007 and is powered by Hypercube, Gracenote and Remiqz. It is an objective ranking of football teams, which shows their relative sporting quality/ playing strength at a given point in time.
The ranking is based on all match results in the national leagues, national cup competitions, the UEFA Champions League and the UEFA Europa League. The number of points a team can win depends on their own strength, the strength of the opponent and home playing advantage. Winning a difficult away game against a top club can therefore deliver more points than winning an easy home game. This is where the Euro Club Index differs from other team rankings, such as the league table. A club can earn the same number of points in every league game, independent of the difficulty of that match. Hence, the Euro Club Index is a more accurate measure of the quality of a club than the league table.