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Fulham favourite to win the 170-million-pound game

24 May 2018
Fulham and Aston Villa will compete in the end-of-season finale for the financial windfall that is promotion to the Premier League. While Wolverhampton Wanderers and Cardiff City have sealed their spots in the top flight next season as Championship winners and runners-up respectively, all eyes will be on Wembley this Saturday. Using both the Euro Club Index (ECI) and Euro Player Index (EPI), Remiqz shows that Fulham go into the 170-million-pound game as favourites to win promotion.

The bookies have Fulham as odds on to be promoted, with 57% chance of claiming a place in the Premier League. If we look at the ECI values of both teams, we also conclude that Fulham (1904) is ranked slightly above Aston Villa (1825) and therefore has a 53% chance to win promotion. However, the match odds naturally depend on the starting line-ups. Therefore, we take the EPI-values of the predicted starting line-ups of both teams and conclude that the gap between Fulham (2944) and Aston Villa (2627) is larger than suggested, with 9 out of 11 positions dominated by Fulham. These line-ups suggest that The Cottagers are even more favourite than the bookies suggest, with 62% of condemning The Villans to another season of Championship football.

The Championship Play-Off Final between Fulham and Aston Villa takes place at Wembley, with kick-off at 5pm BST on May 26.

Spending the money wisely

To understand the importance of promotion from a financial perspective, Remiqz looks at the transfer fees spent by last year’s promoted clubs Brighton & Hove Albion, Newcastle United and Huddersfield Town. Compared to all other clubs from the top-5 European competitions, we conclude that newly promoted Premier League teams spend roughly as much as the sub-top clubs in Spain, Germany, Italy and France.

However, the table also shows that Brighton & Hove Albion, Newcastle United and Huddersfield Town have trouble converting their transfer budget into on pitch quality. The average EPI-value of their squads only exceeds those of the French sub-top clubs, indicating that Italian, German and Spanish clubs with similar budgets are able to attract better players. We conclude that winning the 170-million-pound game could potentially mean an even higher increase in sporting quality of the money is spent wisely.

Working with Remiqz allows clubs to maximize their sporting quality within the boundaries of their financial possibilities. We help clubs by collectively setting realistic goals for the first team, mapping the criteria the squad needs to satisfy in terms of both quantity and quality of the players, identifying the strengths and weaknesses of the current squad and defining the white spots. Using our application, clubs easily find suitable players and calculate the impact of recruiting any player on both the sporting and financial performance of the club.