IQ icon

Germany: World Champions are looking to defend the title

9 June 2018
Italy did it in 1934 and 1938, and Pelé’s Brazil did it in 1958 and 1962. Will Germany be the third team in football history to win the FIFA World Cup as reigning champions? Remiqz takes a look at the possibilities.
Copyright-ProShots-2241393

Chances of winning

Using our unique simulation tool, Remiqz is able to predict the course of the FIFA World Cup. According to our calculations, there is a very decent 10.4% chance that Germany will win the iconic golden cup once again. This makes them the sixth most likely winner of the FIFA World Cup in Russia. Germany could equal Brazil in terms of total wins (5), and manager Joachim Löw could become the second coach to win the tournament twice, equaling the Italian Vittorio Pozzo.

Germany are in Group F, which is an excellent group to get into the tournament. They will face Sweden, Mexico and South Korea, and according to our calculations the Germans have a hefty 85.0% chance of winning the group.

Selection

Germany is a powerhouse when it comes to the players, with 8 players of Bavarian behemoth Bayern München making the final squad. Germany’s best player in terms of EPI is Thomas Müller (EPI: 4954) The most notable player who didn’t get a call-up is of course Manchester City’s Leroy Sané (EPI: 4914).

The overall conclusion can be drawn that this is a very talented yet injury-prone squad. Marco Reus’ injury record is well documented. Jerôme Boateng was not able to play in the last weeks for his club Bayern Munich due to his hamstring. Manuel Neuer did not play official club matches for almost a full season and only just made his return. Mesut Özil had an injury-plagued season at Arsenal and is currently not fit.

Style of play

Germany manager Joachim Löw favors a 4-2-3-1, but is not afraid to switch to three at the back if he finds it to be necessary, as shown at the European Championship of 2016. His team can be counted amongst the best pressing teams at this World Cup, especially after losing the ball.

The strength of this team really lies in the axis. Either Manuel Neuer or Marc-André Ter Stegen will play in goal (what a choice to make as a manager). The center back pairing Jerôme Boateng – Mats Hummels is among the best in the game and it’s a big advantage that they play together at club level. The defense is shielded by double pivot Kroos and Khedira, who have an excellent mutual understanding. Mesut Özil, when fit, is still among the best pure no.10’s in the world and striker Timo Werner has performed even better for Germany than for his club RB Leipzig. Thomas Müller is a right-winger on paper, but plays more as an inside right player and almost as a second striker, with Joshua Kimmich marauding the whole right wing.

Toni Kroos especially stands out because he is the epitome of the modern playmaker role. Nearly all Germany’s attacks start with him and because of Khedira’s presence he is able to dominate Germany’s possession-heavy game in the build-up as well as in attack.

Even though Germany are lacking some speed and, if Özil is not present, perhaps even some creativity in the final third, this is a vastly talented squad and a force to be reckoned with at the FIFA World Cup in Russia.

(Images by Pro Shots)