The biggest upset has been pulled off by Mexico, who only had a 17% chance of winning against reigning World Champions Germany. Thanks to their strong game plan and hard work in defence they managed to surprise a lot of people.
Iran also stole the victory against Morocco with a late winner from a set piece. Their 0-1 victory comes in as the second biggest surprise, as our model gave them a 26% chance of winning that game.
With all games of round 1 being played, Russia, Uruguay, Spain, France, Croatia, Brazil, England and Belgium have more than 90% chance of making it to the knock-out stages. Group F has the most equally spread chances, with Japan’s 2-1 win over Colombia spreading the odds even more. Even though both countries lost their first matches, Poland and Colombia still have more than 30% chance of surviving the group phase.
Remiqz has also calculated the chances of winning the WorldCup 2018 for the top 10 favourites after the first round of matches and the game Rusland-Egypt:
Cristiano Ronaldo (EPI: 5790) put in the most remarkable performance of all players by producing a hat-trick against favourites Spain. Even though Spain looked very strong in possession, they will have to find a solution for teams that are good in counter-attacking, like Portugal. CR7 was also the player that recorded the highest top speed, clocking in at 33,98 km/h during one of Portugal’s vicious counter-attacks.
Not only pace is important in football, the number of high-intensity sprints is significant as well. Russian surprise package Aleksandr Golovin leads the pack in this category at the World Cup. He has done so in impressive fashion by recording 69 sprints against Saudi-Arabia. No other player made more than 60 high-intensity sprints during round 1.
Japan’s playmaker Keisuke Honda assisted Yuya Osako’s goal in a 1-2 win over Colombia. By doing so, he became the first player in history to assist a goal scorer in the World Cups of 2010, 2014 and 2018. Since there are 48 games left to play, some players will join him in this impressive stat.
Neymar (EPI: 4912) was fouled ten times in Brazil’s opener against Switzerland, the most fouls on one player since England’s Alen Shearer got fouled 11 times against Tunisia in 1998.
(Images by Pro Shots)