In the ever changing world of football, models need to be updated on a regular basis. This certainly holds true for a model that estimates the transfer values of football players, as standards seem to rise with every transfer window. Moreover, with the addition of several, mostly Eastern European, competitions to the Remiqz database, an update of the transfer value model was certainly due.
Based on all transfers of the last ten years, Remiqz supplier Hypercube estimated a model that incorporates players’ characteristics like quality (measured in Global Player Index), position on the field (attackers are more expensive) and age. Crucial is the incorporation of predicted quality of a player (measured in Global Player Index forecast) in the remainder of his career.
Significant characteristics of the current club are quality (measured by the Global Club Index) and competition. Of course, also the length of the current contract is a contributing factor.
Clearly, also characteristics of the buying club are important. The Remiqz transfer value model estimates for each player a transfer value for each possible buying club. It turns out that clubs of higher quality pay more for the same player and clubs from some countries pay more (or less) for the same player. It must come as no surprise that clubs from England, e.g., significantly pay more than their counterparts in other European countries.
What are Dutch talents Matthijs de Ligt, Frenkie de Jong, Steven Bergwijn and Tonny Vilhena worth?
As explained above, the transfer value of these players also depends on the club that is interested to buy them. The graph below shows the estimated transfer value for each player for the best and number 8 club (based on Global Club Index) of each of the top-5 club competitions.
Clearly, Matthijs de Ligt has the highest transfer value, which can be no surprise as he is not only the youngest, but also the best of the four in terms of the Global Player Index. Moreover, selling to Manchester City is the most lucrative option for all players, since The Citizens are estimated to be the highest paying club in the world at the moment.
Which players in Europe currently have the highest transfer value?
Once again, the transfer value depends on the club that is interested to buy the player. Under the assumption that Manchester City the interested club (even if they are currently under contract at the club), we find the following results.
Manchester City (4 players) and Tottenham Hotspur (3 players) dominate this list. The only player on this list from outside the Premier League is Kylian Mbappé, the youngest player in the top-10. Harry Kane’s top position is partly due to his long lasting contract (until 2024) with Tottenham Hotspur.
And where are two best players of the world (Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo)? Due to their age they can be found on positions 17 and 37 with a transfer value of € 257 M and € 170, respectively. Hence, we estimate that it would cost Pep Guardiola a hefty € 257 M to reunite himself and Messi at Manchester City.
Where to shop for players that are cheap compared to their quality?
It turns out there are no bargains for top players. However, if your club is looking for players with an GPI-score between 2000 and 3000, do not forget to send some scouts to the highest tier in Switzerland. For players with an GPI-score below 2000, one should not overlook the Finnish highest tier and the Segunda Division in Spain.
(This blog is written with the support of our partners at Hypercube)